Is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart accurate?

The rainbow chart has historically identified major market tops and bottoms well. Every bull market peak reached the red bands and every major bottom reached the blue bands. However, past performance does not guarantee future results.

What band is Bitcoin in right now?

Bitcoin is currently in the "Accumulate" band at $67,268. Check the live chart above for the most current positioning.

How does the logarithmic regression model work?

The model fits a logarithmic curve to Bitcoin's price history since January 3, 2009 (the genesis block). The formula uses the natural log of days since genesis to predict a "fair value" price, with bands at regular intervals above and below representing different levels of over/under-valuation.

Should I buy or sell based on the rainbow chart?

The rainbow chart is an educational tool, not financial advice. While it provides useful historical context for Bitcoin's price cycles, it should be used alongside other analysis tools and your own research. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Bitcoin Rainbow Chart

Long-term logarithmic regression with color-coded price bands. Where does BTC sit today?

Bitcoin Price

$67,268

+0.64% (24h)

Current Band

Accumulate

Based on logarithmic regression since 2009

Days Since Genesis

6,301

January 3, 2009

Log Scale Show Bands

Rainbow Band Legend

Maximum Bubble Territory — Extreme overvaluation. Historically, major corrections follow.

Sell. Seriously, SELL! — Price far above fair value. High risk zone.

FOMO Intensifies — Getting expensive. Euphoria building.

Is this a bubble? — Above trend. Caution warranted.

HODL! — Right around fair value. The center of the rainbow.

Still Cheap — Below trend. Good time to hold or accumulate.

Accumulate — Significantly undervalued. Smart money buying.

BUY! — Deep discount. Historically great entry point.

Basically a Fire Sale — Maximum fear. Generational buying opportunity.

What is the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart?

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart is a long-term valuation tool that overlays color-coded bands on Bitcoin's price history using a logarithmic regression model. Created by the crypto community, it uses the mathematical relationship between Bitcoin's price and time since its genesis block (January 3, 2009) to define "fair value" zones.

How Does It Work?

The model fits a logarithmic curve to Bitcoin's entire price history. The center line represents the "expected" price based on adoption growth over time. Nine bands extend above and below this center, each representing a different level of over- or under-valuation:

Upper bands (red/orange): Price is significantly above the long-term trend — historically a time to take profits
Middle band (yellow): Price is near "fair value" according to the model
Lower bands (green/blue): Price is below trend — historically the best buying opportunities

Is the Rainbow Chart Accurate?

The rainbow chart has been remarkably consistent at identifying major market tops and bottoms since 2011. Every major bull market peak (2013, 2017, 2021) reached the red bands, and every major bottom (2015, 2018, 2022) reached the blue bands. However, past performance does not guarantee future results — the model assumes Bitcoin adoption continues to follow a logarithmic growth pattern.

How to Use This Chart

Use the rainbow chart as one of many tools in your investment toolkit:

Check which band Bitcoin is currently in to gauge relative valuation
Compare current position to previous cycle peaks and troughs
Use with our Fear & Greed Index, DCA Calculator, and Time Machine for a complete picture

Disclaimer: This chart is for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

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